Can DeepSeek Challenge ChatGPT? Insights from Bobble AI’s Market Study

In an insightful study, Bobble AI’s Market Intelligence division analysed the early user trends of DeepSeek, a promising AI chatbot, and its competition with ChatGPT. The study examined key metrics such as new installs, open rates, session duration, and user engagement over the first six weeks of DeepSeek’s launch, revealing interesting trends about user preferences in the AI chatbot market.

Commitment to Privacy and Ethical Data Practices

Bobble AI is dedicated to maintaining user privacy and conducted this study with a strict commitment to ethical data practices. All data collected was anonymised and aggregated, ensuring the protection of participants’ information.

New Installs: A Strong Start but a Short-Lived Peak

The metric studied the new installs of the two apps across the first 6 weeks of Deepseek launch, the data showed that the installs of DeepSeek was marginal as compared with Chatgpt in the first couple of weeks, however, the installs saw significant jump in the third week and reached the peak in the Week 4, however, the new installs started weakening from the next week onwards and settled at a lower level of new installs by the 6th week, the new installs of deepseek completed the bell curve within the first 6 weeks, which is a very small period for the product to threaten the dominance of Chatgpt, however, within itself the app was able to reach extremely significant numbers in such a short period.

Consistent improvements to the product can lead to a situation where it might become a serious competitor to ChatGpt in the future.

Open Rate: Early Enthusiasm, Followed by Stabilisation

The second metric that we studied was the Open Rate, defined as the proportion of installed users who had used the app at least once during the study period. The open rate also throws up some interesting numbers. Initially, as the DeepSeek app was launched, there was an excitement around it and people wanted to see how it performs, hence, everyone who was installing it was using the app, reflected in the high Open rate, however, as the time went by, the installs increased significantly, however, post the initial excitement around the app, the users settled down with the applied usage , which is reflected in the lowering open rates for the app in the subsequent weeks which was the settling down period post the initial spiral, the open rate eventually settles down around 48%, which is almost the same as Chatgpt, whose open rate saw a consistent rise across the six weeks, which is possibly due to the unsettling of the AI platform market due to the emergence of Deepseek.

Average Sessions per User: ChatGPT Maintains a Strong Lead

The figures around the average number of sessions per user show a very interesting picture for DeepSeek usage. The figure given above shows that the average sessions per user were more than double for ChatGPT compared with DeepSeek over all 6 weeks. It was only in the second week that the metric came closer for ChatGPT and DeepSeek, where the excitement for DeepSeek would have made the users use DeepSeek; however, broadly speaking, the preference for ChatGPT among the users is consistent, reflecting higher sessions per user for the app.

Average Session Duration: ChatGPT Users Stay Engaged Longer

The average session duration per user for both the apps follows the trend noticed in the average number of sessions metric, wherein the session durations for ChatGPT have almost been the double of the session duration of the DeepSeek app. There have been a couple of positive fluctuations, but the general trend for DeepSeek has been similar.

Reading the session metrics simultaneously, we see that even during the period when the excitement around DeepSeek was at its peak, the usage of the app was neither high nor consistent.

Despite showing some promise in the first 2 to 3 weeks of its launch, DeepSeek lost its momentum after that, while ChatGPT maintained its dominance throughout the entire period.

Key Takeaways: Can DeepSeek Challenge ChatGPT?

• Strong Initial Interest: DeepSeek generated considerable early traction, demonstrating potential as a competitive AI tool.
• Short-Lived Excitement: The rapid decline in new installs and engagement metrics suggests that users were not fully convinced to shift from ChatGPT.
• ChatGPT’s Steady Performance: ChatGPT maintained its lead across all engagement metrics, reflecting strong user loyalty and higher usage frequency.
• Future Prospects: While DeepSeek has showcased promise, sustaining and growing its user base will require significant product improvements.

The Road Ahead for DeepSeek

DeepSeek was launched with a lot of promise and built at a low cost, effectively a fraction of the cost at which ChatGPT was developed. The new platform was being rated very highly by the media and by the market when it was initially launched. The practitioners believed that DeepSeek was a leap from the existing ChatGPT solutions. The data analysed by the Market Intelligence Division at Bobble AI reflects that the users reacted positively to the excitement that the market had around Deepseek, which is reflected in the rise in its usage in the initial weeks, even though the Open Rate and the session metrics remained lower than ChatGPT; however, the metrics for Deepseek were quite impressive for a new platform. The platform wasn’t able to sustain the excitement witnessed initially after its launch, and all the metrics began to decline rapidly after the first three weeks. The drop in the platform’s metrics was significant and showed that the users weren’t willing to shift their usage from ChatGPT to DeepSeek; they decided to stick with ChatGPT. Ankit Prasad, Founder and CEO, Bobble AI said that “The report shows that duality between marketing and performance, the data reflects how marketing can create an initial excitement around a product, however, the long term performance of a product will be dictated by a number of other important factors, such as performance, hence, this is an extremely important lesson for brands, wherein, they need to focus on overall performance of a product, to get sustainable long term traction for the product”. Now, it seems like DeepSeek will have to make some significant improvements in its product to gain more users; otherwise, time might be running away for DeepSeek, and it might get submerged under the dominance of ChatGPT